A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
